Carmelo Anthony: A (Stevie) Franchise Player With No Super In His Star

From the triple-threat position, out to about 18 feet, isolated in one-on-one man coverage, Carmelo Anthony is one of the deadliest scorers I have ever seen touch a basketball.  Off the top of my head, Melo's mid-range game--his greatest strength--ranks somewhere up there; a notch above Glenn Robinson and a level or two down from Michael Jordan.

He isn't the best shooter, certainly no Reggie Miller, but the fact he can consistently hit the jumper in your face, blow by you off the dribble, or flat-out bully the hell out of you right to the rim makes him one of the game's toughest assignments.

With all that said, I'm no fan of Carmelo Anthony.

The guy plays defense like a "walker" from The Walking Dead--he sees you and attempts to get you, but unless your ankle is busted, he's no real danger.  Offensively, in a half-court set, his style of play never fails to disappoint in creating the four-guys-standing-around-watching-one-guy-with-the-ball situation.

Such a scenario is Ok every so often, especially late in the 4th Quarter, or if the guy is named Jordan or Shaq; otherwise, it usually doesn't work out too well.  After all, basketball is a team game.

So given Melo's shortcomings and style of play, it should come as no surprise he has seen the second round of the playoffs only once in eight seasons.  Once.  Melo-led teams are a combined 16-34 in the playoffs, including a broom loss to the Boston Celtics last season.

What's crazy though is 10 of those 16 wins came in his lone serious playoff run with the Denver Nuggets in 2009.  Melo was mostly a monster in the postseason that year, averaging 27.2 points on 45 percent shooting, grabbing 5.8 rebounds and dishing 4.1 assists.  Of course, in typical inefficient superstar fashion, facing elimination, Melo shot just 22-69 (32 percent) over the last four games of Conference Finals against the L.A. Lakers (the Lakers won three of the four games decidedly and closed out the series).

Remove that one significant playoff run in 2009, and Melo-led teams are just 6-28 in the playoffs.

Nice.  Way to go Knicks.  This is the guy you traded your whole team for after he signed a three-year, $65-million extension?

Oh, my bad, that's right... he gets buckets!

Of course, the Knicks with Ray Felton & Co. were 28-26 (.519) before the deal and 25-32 (.439) afterward.  Meanwhile, the Nuggets went from 29-21 (.580) with Melo to 37-28 (.569) without--not bad considering the competitive division Denver plays in and the inexperience (Danilo Galinari, Wilson Chander, Timofey Mozgov) they received in return for a "superstar."

This all for a guy who in the 2011-2012 season is the 8th-highest paid player in the NBA?

I remember when the Knicks dealt for Melo.  I was so pissed off about it I posted my feelings about it on Facebook and waited to grill anyone who disagreed.

"He's a top-10 player," is what I mostly heard.  Over and over and over again.  That and, "he won a national championship at Syracuse."

Ok, I thought...  just wait and see.  After all, Denver wasn't the least bit worried about losing him, but yet New York was sure it was receiving its second dose of Patrick Ewing-like star power.

61 games later I can't help but wonder if Knicks fans are still as enthusiastic as they were when they traded for Melo.  $18.5 million this year for an 11-14 record (in games he played)?  In a division that features the rebuilding New Jersey Nets and Toronto Raptors, a Celtics squad in hospice, and a young and talented, but mostly raw and unproven Philadelphia 76ers bunch?

This is a "top-10 player?"  At what point does the mind wander into the land of logic and start asking some serious questions?

"Is he better than LeBron?"  

(Laughter)

"Durant?" 

(More Laughter)

"Dirk?"

(Come on, quit being silly)

"Paul Pierce?"

(No)

"Would you rather have Rudy Gay?"

(Probably)

"Kevin Love?"

(I think so)

"Andre Iguodala?"

(Maybe)

"How about Danny Granger, Luol Deng, or Gerald Wallace?"

If you're one of the folks out there who feel Melo is better than any of these guys, ask yourself how much better.  Because when you factor in leadership, locker room presence, defense, hustle, the intangibles, age, health, and money, if the overall package of Melo beats the product any of these guys offer, it's by inches, not feet, not yards, and certainly not light years.

This season Melo does not even rank in the top-20 of any category.  He's averaging 21.4 points per game on 25.3 shots (field goal and free throw attempts).  He ranks 39th in the league in PER (19.1) among all players with as many minutes played.

If you want to say it's because he's hurt or whatever, that's fine, because the truth is Melo has not been 100 percent healthy this season.  With that said, if you take a closer look at some of his stats, you might be inclined to put all health-related excuses to rest.

Among all players who averaged at least 34 minutes per game over the past five seasons:

-Only LeBron, Kobe, and D-Wade have a higher Usage Rate (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor).  In other words, Melo has had superstar-level opportunity.

-13 players, including Al Jefferson and Chris Bosh, have a higher PER (20.9).

-36 players, including Tayshaun Prince and Rashard Lewis, have a higher Offensive Rating (an estimate of points produced per 100 possessions).

-21 players, including David West and Gerald Wallace, have more Win Shares (and estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player).

Yes, Melo has scored a ridiculous amount of points and only four guys have a better points-per-game average during this period.  But these numbers were accumulated due to that superstar-level opportunity.  Give Deng 25 chances to score each game and he'll be in the top-five in scoring.  Only two players in the last five years, LeBron and Kobe, have averaged more field goal attempts per game than Melo.

Kobe has rings.  LeBron has reached the NBA Finals twice.  D-Wade has one ring and played f0r another.  Dirk has a ring in two Finals appearances.  Durant?  His team, OKC, can win it all this year.

Where's Melo?

I'll tell you.  He's with Joe Johnson, Monta Ellis and Kevin Martin.  He's on that level of "superstar."

Quit kidding yourself, Knicks fans... this is Steve Francis Redux.

Big name.  Big hype.  Big rep.  Big scorer.

Big nothing where it matters most.

"Linsanity" is Insanity: Why Jeremy Lin Isn't This Good

"Linsanity" should come as no surprise to anyone.  After all, this is America, the land of the free and home of the brave, where underdogs defy odds and slay Goliath, break barriers, ditch rags for riches, get the girl and walk off into the sunset with the world's cutest beagle in tow.  So when Jeremy Lin emerged from nowhere and led the distressed New York Knicks to seven consecutive victories with his impressive play, it was only fitting we treated the experience as the Second Coming.

The seven-game win streak marked the 34th time in the franchise's 66-year history the Knicks had won at least so many games in a row.  Lin, the undrafted, Asian-American guard out of Harvard, was the main catalyst of the streak, pulling a 1980 Playoff Magic Johnson, all but just 42 days after getting cut by the Houston Rockets.  Between February 4th and 15th, "I've never seen anything like this," unofficially supplanted "I Love This Game" as the NBA's new tagline.

During the win streak, here are the ridiculous per-game averages Lin posted:

37.4 minutes

24.4 points

9.1 assists

4.0 rebounds

1.6 steals 

51.2% FG shooting

Toss in a 38-point performance against the Lake Show, 23-and-10 against John Wall, and 27-and-11 in Toronto (including the game-winner), and it's no surprise Lin was named Player of the Week.

The performance doesn't just have the world upside down, it has it break-dancing on its axis.  The kid is Superman.  He doesn't just defy odds, he crushes stereotypes, and leaps tall buildings in a single bound.  He's not just any player, he's Michael Jordan in disguise.  Say anything to the contrary and you're just a hater.  Just hint at doubting he's a superstar in the making and you'll have quotes from current and past superstars thrown in your face. 

“Players don’t usually come out of nowhere.  If you can go back and take a look, his skill level was probably there from the beginning, but no one ever noticed.” – Kobe Bryant

“Lin is the real deal. He’s the true point guard the Knicks haven’t had in years. He’s the guy the Knicks have needed all along.” – Bernard King

“My God, he’s a tremendous player.” – Jerry West

“Jeremy Lin reminds me so much of Walt Frazier. It’s how Jeremy controls the game, gets the ball to the right people for easy baskets, the lobs he’s throwing to Tyson Chandler — it all reminds me of Clyde.” – Willis Reed

Unbelievable. 

No, seriously, unbelievable, as in "too improbable for belief."

Of course all of this "Linsanity" is too good to be true.  Willis Reed just compared Lin to Walt Frazier after seeing him play just seven games.  Obviously, Reed's emotions in the moment got the best of him.  All of our emotions got the best of us here, much like when Tim Tebow led the Denver Broncos to six-straight wins in dramatic fashion.  We loved the story.  We loved "Rocky," we cried watching "Rudy," and now we want a Hollywood ending to "Yellow Jesus: The Jeremy Lin Story."
 

Unfortunately, this is all just too good to be true.  This is the real world, not Hollywood, and undrafted, Asian-American guards from Harvard, simply do not just appear like Hollow Man and become superstars overnight.  For starters, there has only been one successful Asian NBA player (Yao Ming) and he was 7-foot-6 and 310 pounds.  I don't want to overplay race here because any player of any ethnicity or race can achieve anything--I'm just saying, history is not on Lin's side right now. 

Secondly, Lin is only the fourth guy from Harvard to play in the NBA; the other three guys played prior to 1954 and each only played one season.  The best pro basketball career to have originated from the Ivy League?  Bill Bradley, hands down.  After him?  Probably Chris Dudley.  Talk about a drop-off.

What about undrafted players who went on to have exceptional NBA careers?  After Ben Wallace, a freak physical specimen who won four Defensive Player of the Year awards, and Brad Miller, a two-time All-Star, both centers, every other undrafted player in league history can best be categorized as "quality role player."  David Wesley, Bruce Bowen, and John Starks probably round out the top five.

But this information isn't enough to even get you to start thinking about thinking about questioning if Lin is for real or not.  You don't care that not one but two NBA teams cut him this season.  Right?  It's all about winning.  Never mind the fact five of those seven wins came against the worst teams in the league:

-New Jersey Nets: 9-23 and tied for last place in the Atlantic Division.

-Washington Wizards: 7-24 and tied for the second-worst record in the league.

-Minnesota Timberwolves: 15-16 and tied for last place in the Northwest Division.

-Toronto Raptors: 9-23 and tied for last place with the Nets in the Atlantic Division.

-Sacramento Kings: 10-20 and tied for the third-worst record in the league.

The Knicks were at full strength (with Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire) for the Nets game and just pulled it out in the 4th quarter.  They beat the Wolves by two points after Kevin Love missed a three at the buzzer.  The win over the Raptors came on a last-second shot by you know who.

The win over the Lakers came following a day off for the Knicks; the Lakers played a grueling overtime game the night before in Boston against the Celtics.  Fatigued, the Lakers shot just 37.5 percent against the Knicks and committed 17 turnovers.

The win over Utah was no shock considering the Jazz has just three road wins on the season.

A win is a win you say, and I reluctantly agree.  But it should be noted the "Linning" didn't exactly come against the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder but rather the league's weaker foes.    

On a more worrisome note for you overly optimistic and hopeful Knicks fans, it should also be noted Lin apparently protects the ball like Casey Anthony does children.  In the eight games this season Lin has played at least 25 minutes, he has committed 46 turnovers.  That's an average of 5.8 turnovers per game.  Lin Lovers will counter by pointing to his 69 assists (8.6 per game) and completely fail to acknowledge an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.5 to 1.0 is simply lousy. 

Among qualified players, only six guards in the entire league have a worse ratio than Lin right now.  Among players with at least 100 minutes played this season, Lin has the worst turnovers-per-36 minutes value (5.4 per game).  Through 46 career games, Lin has a turnover percentage of 20.4, which for the past decade ranks him next to neck with such distinguished company: Rick Brunson, Milt Palacio, Jamaal Tinsley, Earl Watson, Johnny Flynn, and Greivis Vasquez.  Not awful players, but clearly not your ideal starting point guard.

Lin Lovers will then argue the turnover issue is correctable; Lin is young and will learn to protect the ball.  This is just untrue.  The turnover percentages (an estimate of turnovers per 100 plays) for Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Mark Jackson, and John Stockton all remained steady or increased as their careers progressed.  As a rookie in 2006, Chris Paul's turnover percentage was 13.7.  Last year, his sixth season in the league, Paul posted 13.9.  

Historically speaking, guys have either been tight or loose with the ball, with little fluctuation in between.  Russell Westbrook isn't going to start walking the ball up court anytime soon.  Don't expect Jose Calderon to run a break every chance he gets.  A player's style is his style.  The last coach arrogant enough to try to change his player's natural style of play was Larry Brown.  Brown sucked the life out of Stephon Marbury, was completely ignored by Allen Iverson, and erroneously received credit for "fixing" Chauncey Billups (who actually shot the ball more under Brown).  

Lin's style of play is his own.  His assist-to-turnover ratio at Harvard was even worse (1.2 to 1.0).  In 20 games with the D-League's Reno Bighorns last year, Lin's ratio was 1.6 to 1.0.  The guy has never been a point guard until now, and that's because the alternatives are a rookie shooting guard (Iman Shumpert), a limited talent who's about to be out of the league (Toney Douglas), and a guy who should have retired three years ago (Mike Bibby).

Another area of concern is Lin's free throw shooting.  Among the 34 point guards in the NBA this season who have played at least 15 games and averaged at least one free throw attempt per game, only Jeff Teague, Goran Dragic, Devin Harris, and Rajon Rondo have a worse clip than Lin's 75.3 percent.  And Harris is a career 80% shooter who doesn't appear to be healthy this year.  

Rondo, the exception to the rule, gets away with the poor shooting because his assist-to-turnover ratio is excellent (three to one for his career), he's elite defensively, and he's surrounded by scorers who keep the pressure off of him.  In comparison, Lin's turnover ratio is awful, his defense is unremarkable, and on a thin Knicks squad he's going to be targeted by opposing defenses.  Simply put, you cannot be a starting point guard in the NBA for long if you (a) have a poor turnover rate, (b) shoot under 80% from the stripe, and (c) play average defense, at best.

All of the hype placed on Lin is unfair to him and completely typical of the Knicks, an organization that puts tourism first and basketball second.  And unfortunately, the fan base laps it all up like a dog that hasn't eaten in days.  In 54 games with the Knicks, Raymond Felton averaged 17.1 points and 9.0 assists per game and fans were screaming he should have made the All-Star team.  Now that Felton is out of the New York City media limelight, does anyone even know if he's alive?

The same will happen to Jeremy Lin.  He's ideal for scoring punch off the bench, not a starting point guard role.  The turnovers will continue.  D'Antoni will keep using him as a point guard because there's no better option.  And all it's going to take for the rest of the world to start doubting him is a few losses.  Just wait and see.  He's good, but he's not this good.

Even some of the folks at Harvard agree.

"The (Real) Dunk"

Knicks fans like to think John Starks dunking around Horace Grant and Michael Jordan in the 1993 NBA Playoffs was the most spectacular thing they have ever seen.  But compare that dunk to the one Scottie Pippen violently threw down over Patrick Ewing in the 1994 Playoffs, and it's a no-brainer which slam is more worthy of the title, "The Dunk."

Charles Smith

Damn if this isn't one of the most painful memories in Knicks history.

Well, hey, this is what happens when you trade Mark Jackson, the adored local kid/Rookie of the Year/All-Star for Charles Smith, a bust who averaged 11.1 points and 4.0 rebounds per game in the playoffs that season.  Three years later, Smith was playing for the CBA's Florida Beachdogs.  

Make all the excuses you want about how Smith was fouled--by the way, what about the no-call on John Starks traveling six seconds earlier?--but the reality is he shouldn't have even been in that situation.  The Knicks should have never traded for him.

Stephon Marbury Promotes the 2008 Season